The Pahalgam context

Experts and analysts in Islamabad were not surprised by India’s blame game after the tragic killing of 26 tourists on April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam, in Indian Illegal Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).

Many see this as yet another orchestrated false flag operation – a tactic that India has historically recycled to defame Pakistan. Without providing concrete evidence, India hastily blamed Pakistan and moved to downgrade bilateral relations. 

However, it is important to critically analyse the broader international, regional and domestic contexts that may have motivated India to escalate its usual narrative.

Analysing the global dynamics, many linked the timing of the attack with the visit of US Vice-President JD Vance to India. Previously, false flag operations have coincided with high-profile visits to malign Pakistan, only to be later exposed as orchestrated from within India. 

During President Bill Clinton’s visit to India in 2000, an attack of a similar nature resulted in the death of 36 Sikh civilians. Likewise, the staged September 2016 Uri attack, that served to sabotage the Saarc Summit scheduled just two months later in Islamabad, was to isolate Pakistan regionally.

The 2019 Pulwama attack, that coincided with the visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman to Pakistan, was later acknowledged by the then Governor of Jammu & Kashmir as a result of internal security lapses but was nevertheless weaponised by PM Modi for electoral gains.

In this context, the Pahalgam attack fits a familiar pattern where India seeks to portray Pakistan in a negative light, and even falsely labelling it in relation to "cross-border terrorism." This is contrary to India’s role in transnational terrorist activities, including confirmed plots of killings in the US and targeted killings in Canada and Pakistan.

These activities are concerning as credible investigations have pointed the involvement of key Indian government authorities, including Amit Shah and senior RAW officials, who authorised the covert operation. Yet the international condemnation remains muted as compared to the immediate reaction following the Pahalgam incident.

Regionally, India is becoming anxious about the shifting dynamics in its neighbourhood, particularly the bolstering ties between Bangladesh, Pakistan and China. The post-Hasina government in Bangladesh has engaged closely with Islamabad and Beijing, reversing decades of New Delhi’s efforts to cultivate Dhaka as an anti-Pakistan ally in the region. 

Strategic cooperation between Bangladesh and China, especially the proposed construction of an airfield near India’s vulnerable Siliguri Corridor (also known as the "Chicken Neck"), poses serious security risks for India’s connection to its northeastern states.

Bangladesh’s preference for China, without fear of compromising ties with India, became evident when Professor Yunus made remarks regarding the landlocked northeastern states having only Bangladesh for sea access. 

Such developments are deeply unsettling for New Delhi’s objective of regional dominance, and it is plausible that the Pahalgam incident was engineered to send a warning to Pakistan amid these shifting alliances.

Domestically, Indian society is experiencing growing communal tensions, particularly following the Indian government’s repeal of the Muslim Wakf Act 1923 and amended the Waqf Act 1995. 

These legislative changes sparked widespread protest in the eastern state of West Bengal where the Indian authorities had to deploy police along with paramilitary troops, which left three dead and over 150 people arrested.

Although Modi government claims that these reforms aim to fight corruption, the Muslim community fears that this is another measure to confiscate, demolish and dispute Muslim-owned properties. Against this backdrop of civil unrest, the attack on tourists in Pahalgam conveniently diverts public attention, providing an opportunity to stoke nationalistic sentiments.

Electorally, the BJP has historically peddled anti-Pakistan narrative for electoral gains, most recently during the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections. 

The Pahalgam attack appears similarly timed to galvanise voters ahead of the critical Bihar state elections scheduled for October/November 2025. Bihar, with 40/543 seats in Lok Sabha and 16/245 seats in Rajya Sabha, holds significant political weight and, therefore, it is crucial for BJP to secure victory after its success in Delhi elections.

The BJP is eyeing victory in Bihar and on Bihari’s due to weakening regional parties Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD) and Janta Dal (United), and changing voter preferences. 

It aims to consolidate its upper-caste Hindu vote bank while making inroads into Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) under the narrative of inclusion, which could divert voters from other parties to the BJP. Nationalistic fervor, fueled by anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim narrative paired with Hindutva politics, seems to be the BJP’s strategy for electoral success in Bihar

From a Kashmiri perspective, India aims to use the Pahalgam attacks to mischaracterise their legitimate UN-sanctioned right for self-determination as terrorism. 

Kashmiri leaders have repeatedly condemned attacks against civilians, foreigners and tourists, and emphasised that such acts do not align with the goals of freedom movement. The attack in IIOJK highlights, not only the failure of over 900,000 deployed forces, but also the failure of India’s rhetoric that ‘normalcy’ and development has returned to Kashmir following the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A.

In reality, the region remains highly militarised, subjected to draconian laws, demographic engineering and widespread surveillance – even down to security forces tracking the number of chickens in Kashmiri households, which symbolises the everyday oppression endured by the people. 

After the Pahalgam attack, the oppression intensified with raids of hundreds of homes, arrest of more than 1500 Kashmiris, and combing operations in jungles and mountains. This truly ruptures Modi’s promise of ‘New Kashmir’ being ‘terror-free and heaven for tourists.’

When looking at the regional, global and national dynamics, it appears that India is once again weaponising the "terrorism" narrative for political and strategic gains. This poses a serious threat to regional peace and security. Islamabad has rightly cautioned against India’s escalatory actions and reaffirmed its commitment to respond firmly against any aggressive moves.

The Pahalgam attack, its timing and the strategic gains sought from it must be evaluated impartially and holistically by international observers and the global community before drawing a conclusion. This remains crucial for preserving stability and preventing further escalation in an already volatile region.

The writer is a research analyst in emerging technologies and international security. She tweets/posts @MaheenShafeeq

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed in this piece are the writer's own and don't necessarily reflect Geo.tv's editorial policy.

Originally published in The News